After the Catastrophe is before the Catastrophe

http://www.sciy.org/blog/_archives/2007/2/24/2762633.html

“Human History becomes more and more a race between Education and Catastrophe”

H.G. Wells (1866-1949) Culture of Preparedness

We need integral early warning systems

We have to start talking about catastrophes in the same way that we are talking about our illnesses.

By Otto Ulrich

 
Duraiasan knows – not only because he is one of the oldest fishermen along the coast of Tamil Nadu in South India, but he knows, because he was present when the deadly wave arrived. He saw the school-children running after the receding wave with shouts of excitement. The event was something new and unknown, and there was no warning. Nobody came back: “The wave was quicker than they could run”. The old fisherman knows something else: “They would all still be alive if they had lived farther away from the sea, as we did 10 years ago. But our access to the ocean has been blocked by large buildings, and we had to move close to the sea in order to be able to go fishing – much too close.”

At the UN University in Bonn, these sad experiences of the old fisherman in far-away India have been placed into a larger context which could bear the following heading: The world needs a “culture of preparedness” in order to deal with the new quality of global catastrophes. Very clearly, this is not about looking back to the past. We have already entered another pre-tsunami phase. After the catastrophe is before the catastrophe.

Earthquakes, hurricanes, floods, volcanic eruptions and other natural disasters are inevitable, but the extent of human suffering can be decreased and limited to a minimum. The dawning new global perspective will have to consider the constant possibility of and preparation for the next catastrophe as an integral part of human life. And it is exactly this what the UN-researchers in Bonn are working on. Part of this new “culture of preparedness” will be a global early warning system, since it is a fact that hundreds of thousands of people could still be alive after the natural disasters in the years of 2003 and 2005, if they had been warned and better prepared to act appropriately. This completes a circle: According to the researchers in Bonn, it is predictable that the new global danger, which is caused by both “natural” and “man-made” catastrophes, will  spread more and more to the rich countries of the Northern part of the world. This fact is based on the new “Report on Global Catastrophes, 2005”, which was recently published by the International Red Cross.

The tsunami of the year 2004 can be seen as a loud “wake-up call” in order to realize: the hurricanes “Katrina” and “Rita” which occurred in the USA also fit into the new picture of ‘the Earth fighting back’. And there are many more incidents which fit into the new picture: the terrible earthquake in Bam, Iran, in the year of 2003, and the earthquake in Jammu and Kashmir at the Indian-Pakistan border in the year of 2005, the dam failure in Pradesh, India, after unexpected snowmelt, curiously intense snowstorms in Germany, torrential rains in Europe and Asia which have not been observed before, and the heat-waves and wildfires in Spain and Portugal. All of this seems to be the prelude to an even more dramatic scenario, as envisioned by Arun Ahaluwalia, professor of geology in Chandigarh, North India. Even if this sounds cynical at first, he thinks one has to start viewing the tsunami of 2004 as a catastrophe with positive implications for mankind. In The Hindu (December 26, 2005) he wrote that the world looked on as 300 000 people died in broad daylight. According to him, it was not the tsunami, but the ignorance regarding the dynamics of the tsunami which killed the people.

It is exactly this lack of preparedness which will need to change. There is yet another lesson to be learned from the tsunami: The deadly wave has to be understood as a symbolic slap in the face of mankind. The collateral damage due to the constant changes in global climate does not leave any alternative except a comprehensive preparation for catastrophes, if the sudden death of millions of people is to be avoided in the future. This is the view of Jan Egeland, responsible for humanitarian affairs and emergency relief coordination at the UN.

Even if this new dimension of natural disasters is understood as a loud wake-up call, it will not diminish the occurrence of catastrophes in the near future, and mankind has to be prepared for more frequent and more powerful ‘slaps in the face’. It is the impact of this new dimension of catastrophes that former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan wishes to address. “This hitherto unique global catastrophe needs a hitherto unique global response.”

The on-going war against nature and its most obvious effect of climatic changes calls for a vision which will inspire courage, a courage which includes the ability to face the effects of climatic changes fearlessly. This is easier said than done, and an enormous amount of practical problems will need to be addressed. One important issue is the fact that usually there is too little preparation before a catastrophe strikes, which, for example, became obvious in New Orleans. Up to then, people had thought that a hurricane of the caliber of “Katrina” would only strike every 30 years.

The difficulty remains in responding to potential catastrophes which occur infrequently, and yet cause very high damage. It is important to find realistic and affordable answers today, and not at some point in the future.

This is part of the new insight which needs to be developed. The goal is to be “better” prepared for possible natural disasters – whatever this means in the concrete context of a local threat.

This new dimension and new quality has to become firmly rooted in the world of science, though fundamentally it is a didactic challenge.

In order to develop a didactic model of preparedness, first of all we have to learn to talk openly about our vulnerability and our lapses, and about the threats we face in daily life. We have to learn how to overcome our fears. We have to take up the discussion again regarding the risks inherent in our particular type of civilization. The new pressure of global threat is forcing us to stop acting against the laws and resources of nature, and it forces us to look for alternatives. We need to talk about the impact of massive chemical catastrophes or digital infrastructures getting out of hand in the same way we talk about cancer or Aids, depression and chronic fatigue syndrome.

We will have to come up with a sustainable model of affluence. The first step is already a major problem: how to be able to bear the new insight that fundamentally we are living on a volcano which could erupt any moment, and how to integrate this awareness into our daily lives, the same way we do with our illnesses.

The international community of people working on reducing catastrophes agrees that it is crucial to establish an integral early warning system which focuses on human beings rather than on modern technology, as postulated by Jan Egeland.

As long as there is no early warning system for catastrophes which includes didactic concepts (so that the Indian children would have learned already in school never to run after a receding wave), and as long there is such a lack of awareness of potential catastrophes that even today people continue to build and send tourists to hotels in high-risk areas, the responsibility lies on the shoulders of the UN researchers in Bonn to develop an international platform of all aspects of an early warning system. For example, they have already pointed out a special challenge right “next-door”, in the Netherlands: 60 percent of this country is below the sea level of the North Sea. In the delta of this country there is a point of confluence of three major European rivers, the Rhine, Maas and Schelde, and exactly in this area, which is at a high risk of being flooded, 70 percent of the national product is generated.

Seen from this platform it becomes clear that in 2003, 23000 people died in Europe because of intense heat-waves. Another striking realization is that according to estimates from the UN, in the year of 2020 4.8 billion people will be living in the deltas of the world’s major rivers, i.e. in especially vulnerable regions of the Earth.

By the way: 4.8 billion – this will be half of the world’s population. Most of these people will be living in the rapidly growing mega-cities in South America, Asia and the Middle East, and they will be constantly threatened by floods, heat-waves, earth-quakes and new tsunamis.

It is also significant that according to statistics, in the period of 1999 to 2003 there was a yearly average of 707 natural disasters. This is an increase by two-thirds compared with the period between 1994 and 1998. During the sixties of the last century there were 16 natural disasters per year, in the years after 1990 the number increased to 70. This means that every 20 years the number of ‘pedagogic slaps in the face’ has doubled which is hardly a comforting calculation.

What could be done ‘prophylactically’ in order to soften the unexpected impact of the next catastrophe, keeping in mind that it might happen any moment and yet, that it is unlikely to occur? Continuing as before is hardly the answer.

When the present phase of rebuilding schools and houses, of installing modern toilet facilities, and of establishing alternative sources of income for the fishermen is completed it will be time to think about methods of preparation for possible catastrophes. This preparation should not only take place in training-camps and schools, but also in those places which are not necessarily considered high-risk areas. Also, it is important that people are not simply taught another method, this time labeled “preparation”. No, it would be crucial to initiate a dialogue and develop a long-term strategy of preparation for catastrophes in cooperation with all involved.

Kofi Annan demands the establishment of an early warning system focusing on the poor, the world’s most vulnerable people. But what could this mean?

Early warning systems based on satellite technology which are currently being discussed do not address the new pedagogic issue concerning proper didactic methods. Which methods could be useful so that school-children all over the world can learn to talk openly and without fear about possible catastrophes? For example, children could learn that the forces of nature - rain, fire, wind, and snow- can sometimes be too much, and that such events can lead to a loss of electricity or water. Then perhaps the question of what comes out of a plug or faucet could be discussed, and where “this” comes from in the first place.

However, is it enough to know how to make an emergency call or to recognize different types of catastrophes and to train adequate behavior responses? Is it enough to know about indicators of catastrophes, or to know how to react when one’s clothes are on fire (“stop, lie down and roll around”) or during an earth-quake (“lie down, cover up, keep calm”)?

All this and much more certainly belongs into the “first-aid kit” of mental preparation. But mere information and educational methods do not offer a solution to the question of how the vulnerability of our affluent and materialistic social structures can be reduced. This is the essential task of an integral early warning system, if it wants to earn the title of being an instrument for the establishment of a “culture of preparedness”.

It might sound shocking, but the true challenge does not lie in the fact that nearly 400 nuclear power plants world-wide are located in areas susceptible to tsunamis, earthquakes, or flooding. This perspective creates fear because the fact remains that there is always the possibility of a scenario where no time for any warning is left at all, such as the impact of a meteorite or unpredictable shifts of land masses along the earth crust’s tectonic break lines which could trigger new tsunamis. In such a case, no high-tech early warning system and no mental “first aid kit” will help. Rather, it is important to create a connection in people’s minds between the possibility of a sustainable future and the implementation of practical measures. Only this step can absolve mankind of the sins of the past, even though they will continue to determine and shape our lives in years to come.

To initiate spirited and creative thinking processes, as envisioned by Kofi Annan as a way to formulate global answers, is a task for the journalist as well as for the pedagogue – even though this alone will not be enough. But for the beginning, they are called to lead the transition from paralyzing communication processes about life-threatening catastrophes to a proactive participation in shaping a future which will be less fragile.

As an important step into this direction, a journalistic manual has been published recently by the UNESCO, placing the threat of catastrophes into a wider perspective with positive implications for the future.

A pedagogic answer is still missing. Education which is entertaining - for example in the form of drama, role-play and simulation games - offers opportunities to get into contact with school-children all over the world. Maybe Duraiasan, the old fisherman in South India, and his colleagues will soon learn from their own children and grandchildren what it means to implement the principles of sustainable development in their daily lives, which, after all, might be the only chance left to create a less threatening future.

After the catastrophe is before the catastrophe. Mere suspicions are currently being substituted by practical experiences which show that the loud ‘slaps in the face’ are part of something alien and disturbing taking up more and more space in our civilized and orderly world view ruled by technology. This could also be interpreted as the irreversible rejection of the supremacy of rationality.

It seems the period of merely rational approaches is coming to an end.

Rationalistic and narrow-minded approaches have long been suggesting that only an intelligent and technologically sound change of external circumstances can prevent the susceptibility to catastrophes inherent in “our” type of civilization. This vulnerability has been the subject of discussion since the sixties of the last century.

At present it seems that people like Johannes Scotus Erigena, Rudolf Steiner and Sri Aurobindo receive their due recognition. They have pointed out already a long time ago that it is crucial to provide opportunities for the human being to develop his/her inner being. Only those people who recognize and develop their inherent spiritual potential will be able to create a future based on the principle of becoming, a future which is humane and supportive of all life.

Materialism, seen as the child of the Age of Enlightenment and as an epochal phenomenon, has always been and still is orientated towards that which has become, which means that which is already dead. Is it possible that a new and free perspective will finally overcome materialism and its life-threatening contradictions and catastrophes – a perspective which can rise above the inevitable dire consequences of one-dimensional thinking in order to create a different future rooted in global thinking and global respect?